Oregon Summer 2021

I had a mentor years ago who used to say, “You will know the top of the market with absolute clarity when it’s passed you by.” And so, here we are in early June, which is usually a time when the market is jumping locally. Instead, it is plateauing. Even dropping in some market segments.

The number of houses on market has risen, the number of properties remaining on market for a week or more has risen and yes, we have seen some price reductions as well. And, sparsely attended open houses. None of that means we’ve seen the last of high sales prices or multiple offers, just that at the moment, pressure on buyers has eased some.

SO….the gnawing question: Has the peak peaked? Is this the market “correction”? Is the bubble popping? Is there a bubble?

The cautious answer to all of these questions should be: I have No Idea. Apparently, I have company ‘cuz the Fed apparently doesn’t know either.

However, in considering the future, it might be wise to muse on the following:

First, although the market has been dizzyingly fast until now, significant segments of the population have been largely missing in action for the past year in the buying and selling ranks. Among them: Seniors. Many are continuing to shelter in place until issued an All-Clear by the governor. Each year, seniors are a powerful force in the housing market because they tend to hold more cash than buyers in other demographics. In a competitive market where multiple offers are common, a senior with cash can often flush heavily leveraged buyers off the table with ease. The opening of Oregon will bring a return of these buyer-sellers.

Also missing from the market: Middle and upper-income business owners whose companies have been shuttered or otherwise damaged by pandemic restrictions, and W-2 workers who, while still employed, lost a year of step-raises or, worse, took a pay cut.

Coming soon, the reopening of Oregon. A fully open Oregon has the potential to bring some balance to the market. With more available properties for sale, would-be buyers stuck in houses they’ve outgrown will finally be able to find what they want and move up, making way for first-timers trying to afford starter homes or seniors wanting to downsize.

Stimulus checks burning a hole in the pockets of some can help cover buyer closing costs/down payments or get repairs done before selling. Those whose unemployment checks are bigger than their previous wages might also have managed to put some cash away toward a new house, and some might be able to find a better-paying job than they had before the virus crisis because of the worker shortage.

In short, no, I don’t think bubbles are bursting or that we are on a road to disaster. I think it’s possible we’re on the road to a healthier market, one where the population rotates logically and calmly to its next housing iteration. A little less Duck-Duck-Goose, a little more Monopoly.

So, if you’ve contemplated making a change, it may be time to pack the knickknacks and the Thigh Master.